基于Eviews的季节时间序列(SARIMA)预测模型SARIMA prediction model for time series based on the Eviews
焦亮,李文杰,赵超敏,余婉玲,欧春汉
摘要(Abstract)：
目的采用季节时间序列(Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average,SARIMA)模型建立传染病预测模型。方法根据2009-2013年珠海市斗门区手足口病月报告数的时间序列,采用Eviews拟合SARIMA模型。结果模型SARIMA(1,1,2)(1,1,1)12能很好地拟合珠海市斗门区手足口病月发病数,预测效果较好。结论采用Eviews拟合的SARIMA模型可以用于传染病的的短期预测和动态分析。
关键词(KeyWords)： Eviews;季节时间序列;SARIMA;预测
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 焦亮,李文杰,赵超敏,余婉玲,欧春汉
DOI: 10.13515/j.cnki.hnjpm.1006-8414.2015.05.008
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