刘钦,张学玲

• 1:天津市滨海新区疾病预防控制中心

摘要(Abstract)：

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19,简称新冠肺炎)是由一种新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV,简称新冠病毒)引起的新发传染病,目前我国新冠肺炎疫情防控形势持续向好,须"外防输入、内防反弹",其中对聚集性疫情的控制是当前防疫工作的重点之一。本文对新冠聚集性疫情特征、暴露方式、基本再生指数(R_0)、代间距、续发率等指标予以综述,为进一步防控新冠聚集性提供思路,为科学制定防控策略提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 新型冠状病毒肺炎;聚集性疫情;流行病学;基本再生指数;代间距

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 天津市滨海新区卫生计生委科技项目，项目编号2015BWKY026

作者(Author): 刘钦,张学玲

DOI: 10.13515/j.cnki.hnjpm.1006-8414.2021.10.002

参考文献(References)：

• [1]Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.Report of clustering pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan city[EB/OL].(2019-12-31).http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2019123108989.
• [2]ZHANG YZ,HOLMES EC.A genomic perspective on the origin and emergence of SARS CoV 2[J].Cell,2020,181(2):223-227.
• [3]WHO.Novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)situation report-22[EB/OL].(2020-02-11)[2020-04-06].https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/nove-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports.
• [4]WHO.WHO director-general’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19-11 March 2020[EB/OL].(2020-03-12)[2020-05-01].http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who director generals opening remarks at the media briefing on covid 1911 march 2020.
• [5]CHAN JF,YUAN S,KOK K,et al.A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission:a study of a family cluster[J].The Lancet,2020,395(10223):514-523.
• [6]LIU T,HU JX,XIAO JP,et al.Time-varying transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China[J].bioRxiv,2020(Preprint).
• [7]WHO.Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) situation report-33[EB/OL].(2020-02-22) https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/.
• [8]雷明玉,黄艳,勾云,等.贵州省新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情特征分析[J].中国公共卫生,2020,36(4):493-497.
• [9]庄雅丽,张应涛,李梦,等.广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2020,54(7):720-725.
• [10]洪浚扉,李羽敏,季巧英,等.丽水市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情分析[J].预防医学,2020,32(12):1217-1219.
• [11]郭慧芬,马彩凤,李云云,等.太原市入境某航班新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情流行特征分析[J].预防医学论坛,2020,26(8):635-636+641.
• [12]孙亚敏,刘锋,蔡伟,等.北京市某市场新型冠状病毒肺炎相关聚集性疫情传播链分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(3):427-432.
• [13]陈禹存,杨世宏,安庆玉,等.2020年7-8月辽宁省大连市新型冠状病毒肺炎暴发疫情流行病学调查分析[J].疾病监测,2021,36(2):127-130.
• [14]Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The Chinese center for disease control and prevention isolated COVID-19 live virus from cold chain food packaging[EB/OL].(2020-10-17).http://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/szkb_11803/jszl_2275/202010/t20201017_222144.html.
• [15]Tianjin Municipal Health Commission.Novel coronavirus infection source published in Tianjin Hailian refrigerated storage[EB/OL].(2020-11-24).http://wsjk.tj.gov.cn/ZTZL1/ZTZL750/YQFKZL9424/FKDT1207/202011t20201124_4132869.html.
• [16]杨海燕,徐洁,李岩,等.新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情特征初步分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(5):623-628.
• [17]ONG SWX,TAN YK,CHIA P,et al.Air,surface environmental and personal protective equipment contamination by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(sars-cov-2) from a symptomatic patient[J].JAMA,2020,323(16):1610-1612.
• [18]中华预防医学会新型冠状病毒肺炎防控专家组.新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征的最新认识[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(2):139-144.
• [19]HOLSHUE ML,DEBOLT C,LINDQUIST S,et al.First case of2019 novel coronavirus in the united states[J].N Engl JMed,2020,382(10):929-936.
• [20]刘怡芳,李佳萌,周朋辉,等.天津市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情病例分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(5):653-656.
• [21]陈奕,王爱红,易波,等.宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎密切接触者感染流行病学特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(5):667-671.
• [22]应若素,黄德扬,陈美红,等.游轮聚集性新型冠状病毒肺炎的临床表现和辅助检查特点[J].广州医科大学学报,2020,48(4):46-49.
• [23]甘虹,张一,袁敏等.1052例聚集性肺炎流行病学特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(5):1004-1008.
• [24]吴伟慎,李永刚,魏兆飞,等.天津市某百货大楼新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情调查分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(4):489-493.
• [25]陈敏红,贾海梅,王瀚炜,等.福建省福州市新型冠状病毒肺炎病例及其密切接触者感染情况分析[J].疾病监测,2020,35(7):608-612.
• [26]谢许情,程文娟,邓志强,等.一起农村新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情的调查分析[J].现代预防医学,2020,47(23):4353-4356.
• [27]HERSHOW RB,SEGALOFF HE,SHOCKEY AC,et al.Rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a state prison after introduction by newly transferred incarcerated persons-Wisconsin,August14-October 22,2020[J].MMWR?Morb Mortal Wkly Rep,2021,70(13):478-482.
• [28]陈飒,张义,李超,等.陕西省2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情典型案例分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(8):1204-1209.
• [29]SHARMA S,MOHINDRA R,RANA K,et al.Assessment of potential risk factors for 2019-novel coronavirus(2019-nCov)infection among health care workers in a tertiary care hospital,North India[J].J Prim care community health,2021(12):1-7.
• [30]WANG XR,ZHOU Q,HE YK,et al.Nosocomial outbreak of2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan,China[EB/OL].(2020-05-04)The European respiratory journal.https://www.x-mol.com/paper/1258042651966636032.adv.
• [31]李辉,邓可斌,马欣武,等.武汉市3572份样本新型冠状病毒肺炎核酸检测结果分析[J].中华医院感染学杂志,2020,30(15):2252-2255.
• [32]骆文涛,刘曦,陈公启,等.珠海市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性病例与散发性病例的临床特点比较[J].中华传染病杂志,2020,38(10):658-662.
• [33]刘莉,井丽,礼彦侠,等.辽宁省新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性病例流行病学分析[J].中国公共卫生,2020,36(4):473-476.
• [34]邓志强,夏文,范义兵,等.南昌市一起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情传播链分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1420-1423.
• [35]WILSON E,DONOVAN CV,CAMPBELL M,et al.Multiple COVID-19 clusters on a university campus-North Carolina,August 2020[J].MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep,2020,69(39):1416-1418.
• [36]LIU F,LI X,ZHU GF.Using the contact network model and metropolis-hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19spread on the“diamond princess”[J].Science Bulletin,2020,65(15):1297-1305.
• [37]LIPSITCH M,COHEN T,COOPER B,et al.Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome[J].Science(80-),2003,300(5627):1966-1970.
• [38]CAUCHEMEZ S,FRASER C,VAN K,et al.Middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus:quantification of the extent of the epidemic,surveillance biases,and transmissibility[J].Lancet Infect Dis,2014,14(1):50-56.
• [39]王莹,尤心怡,王奕婧,等.中国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情基本再生数评估[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(4):476-477+479.
• [40]韩珂,贾王平,曹文哲,等.一线城市新型冠状病毒肺炎实时基本再生数估算及流行现状评估[J].解放军医学院学报,2020,41(4):421-425+429.
• [41]苟发香,张晓曙,姚进喜,等.甘肃省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1415-1419.
• [42]张延炀,李军,杨凯朝,等.河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情传播动力学研究[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2020,24(6):660-664+675.
• [43]白尧,刘昆,陈志军,等.陕西省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的早期传播动力学研究[J].中华医院感染学杂志,2020,30(6):834-838.
• [44]魏永越,官锦兴,赵杨,等.SEIR动力学模型辅助北京市新发地新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情传播起始时间溯源和防控效果评价[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(11):1772-1776.
• [45]万时雨,刘珏,刘民.新型冠状病毒基本再生数研究进展[J].科学通报,2020,65(22):2334-2341.
• [46]赵善露,高立冬,罗垲炜,等.湖南省新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情流行特征分析[J].实用预防医学,2020,27(5):517-520.
• [47]BURKE MR,MIDGLEY MC,DRATCH A,et al.Active monitoring of persons exposed to patients with confirmed covid-19-united states,january february 2020[J].MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep,2020,69(9):245-246.
• [48]孙琬琬,凌锋,潘金仁,等.浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎家庭聚集性疫情流行特征分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2020,54(6):625-629.
• [49]赵跃媛,赵兴,许雷,等.连云港市11起新冠肺炎家庭聚集性疫情分析[J].江苏预防医学,2021,32(3):313-314.
• [50]高文静,李立明.新型冠状病毒肺炎潜伏期或隐性感染者传播研究进展[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(4):485-486+488.
• [51]谢仕兰,黄建华,刘珺,等.广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎无症状感染者流行病学特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1406-1410.
• [52]WEI WE,LI Z,CHIEW CJ,et al.Presymptomatic transmission of sars-cov-2-singapore,january 23-march 16,2020[J].MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep,2020,69(14):411-415.
• [53]董晓春,李佳萌,柏建芸,等.天津市新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例流行病学特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(5):638-641.
• [54]KUK AYC,MA S.The estimation of sars incubation distribution from serial interval data using a convolution likelihood[J].Stat Med,2005,24(16):2525-2537.
• [55]陈聪,沈洪兵,祁瑞,等.中小学流感暴发疫情病例居家隔离治疗对家庭传播影响分析[J].中国学校卫生,2015,36(10):1527-1530.